1、 Inventory
During the week ending July 2, 2023, the inventory of bare diamonds on the cultivation diamond midstream decreased by approximately 5.55%, with a decrease of nearly 10% in the [0.50-0.99ct] section, followed by a decrease of about 7.10% in the [3.00-3.99ct] section.
Compared to a month ago (i.e. around June 4th), the overall inventory of bare diamonds has increased by 3.45%, with an increase of over 7% in the [4.00ct or above] and [3.00-3.99ct] sectors. There is still a certain degree of oversupply, but the situation is much better than before. Compared to other sections, the supply and demand situation is more reasonable.
Based on pricing considerations, we determine that the segment where inventory has increased rapidly in the past month is:
·4.00-4.99ct, F-G color, FL-VVS2 clarity round drill
·Round drill with a clarity of over 5.00ct, D-G colors, FL-VVS2
The following is a comprehensive summary of inventory changes in each region from the end of last year to the present. The inventory decline in each segment this week has been quite significant, which should be related to the recent increase in downstream pickup volume and some factories in the middle stream reducing production.
One of the most important tasks in the industry at present is to continue to stimulate downstream demand in the second half of the year, and use flexible ways to distribute goods in the downstream, so as to adjust the supply and demand of bare drilling to a sustainable balance.
In terms of the proportion of specific categories, the situation is as follows:
Shape:
Round drill: 40.09%
Shaped drill: 59.91%
The situation is basically the same as last week.
Growth process:
CVD: 65.26%
High temperature and high pressure: 34.74%
The proportion of CVD diamonds increased by 3 percentage points compared to last week.
Single weight:
0.50-0.99ct: 18.33%
1.00~1.99ct: 43.31%
2.00-2.99ct: 20.25%
3.00-3.99ct: 10.27%
4.00-4.99ct: 3.95%
>5.00ct: 3.89%
The proportion of the section from 0.50 to 0.99ct decreased by 1 percentage point compared to last week.
2、 Online quotation
Compared to a week ago, the overall online quotation has decreased by 0.8%. Overall, the price of round diamonds with a weight of 4.00 carats or more has been significantly reduced, especially in the section with a weight greater than 5.00 carats. The online quotation for D/E color and VVS1/2 has decreased by about 5%, while F/G color and VVS1/2 have exceeded 10%.
The prices of other sections are well maintained, with the [0.50-0.99ct] section being the most obvious, with varying degrees of increase in online quotes for both circular and irregular drills, especially for VS1/2 clarity irregular drills.
The macro situation is as follows:
The online quotes for diamonds below 3.99 carats are well controlled, with more than 50% of the segments experiencing an increase within a week, while the rest also show a small single digit decrease.
Prices above 4.00 carats are under heavy pressure, especially in the sector where inventory surged the previous week [above 5.00ct], and the supply and demand situation this week is not ideal.
If compared to a month ago, the price performance of round diamonds is generally poor. In the irregular diamond, the D/E color and VVS1/2 cleanliness sectors in the [4.00-4.99ct] section showed relatively optimistic prices. In addition, the prices of irregular diamonds in the 3.00-3.99ct section performed well, especially in the F/G color and VS1/2 cleanliness sections.
3、 Price advantage of high temperature and pressure
This week, the quotation for high-temperature and high-pressure diamonds still maintained a strong advantage in the circular drilling plate of the [0.50-0.99ct] section. However, compared to last week, the advantage of high-temperature and high-pressure diamonds in the [1.00~1.49ct] range has decreased, and their range has been reduced to the D/E color and FL/VVS2 cleanliness sectors.
After analyzing the lowest quotations in the top ten for each segment, we found that the segments with a high temperature and high pressure diamond proportion exceeding 50% this week are as follows:
Circular:
·0.50-0.99ct, D-G, FL-VS2
·1.00~1.49ct, D~E, FL~VVS2
·1.50~1.99ct, D~E, FL~VVS2
·4.00-4.99ct, D-E, FL-VVS2
·5.00ct+, D-E, FL-VVS2
Alien: None